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1st, it wouldn't be at all stunning to notice that only forty five% are actually for Murphy, but just by luck we happened to talk to an unusually massive share of Murphy supporters. This can be the problem of sample measurement. The scaled-down the sample, the greater the influence of luck on the outcome we get.
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Do you try to remember the scene from “Minority Report” starring Tom Cruise exactly where his hero, a policeman from the longer term, gleans tip-offs from 3 psychics to forecast the crimes?